5 areas the Talented Zach Wilson Can Improve Upon

 

5 Biggest Areas NY Jets QB Zach Wilson Can Improve Upon

This article takes a look at Zach Wilson's rookie campaign. Zach has great upside and talent but has some work to do as he will be competing with Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Pat Mahomes and Josh Allen on a yearly basis trying to win an AFC championship. These are the areas he needs to get better at to take the next step as a QB.

The toughest thing to do is play QB in the NFL. It's tough because of a few factors:

#1 The NFL passing game and the college game are on 2 different levels. The athleticism of the defensive players at the college level are no comparison to the NFL Level.  You have certain routes that you can complete with ease at the college level, but at the pro level they are quite difficult because of the athleticism in the secondary. An example is the route below:

The smash route is a good concept but you see it thrown so much more at the college level than at the NFL Level. The reason is Cb's are so quick and able to play the divider concept and really disrupt the route. It is much less thrown at this level. It's one of the tough routes you get away with in college that are tough to throw at the NFL Level.

#2 The college game is a more vertical passing league. You see teams throw so much more deep passes in the college ranks against cover 4 based schemes.  Why, because they have better athletes, and they easily win those matchups because they have those better athletes. Alabama, Clemson, and Georgia are better in 80% of the games they play. Those wr get so much more separation than they do in the NFL. Thus accuracy numbers are inflated for certain college qbs. It's hard to assess based on the level of competition how guys are going to handle the NFL.

#3 The game is so much more mental. The college game is dumbed down and the read progression is so much simpler in the college game.  So many guys come from an air raid system and then get thrown into a pro system with different reads and progressions. Add the protection calls into the equation, it's a lot on a young QB. 

#4 Many QB's come from air raid and shot gun heavy systems. In the NFL, you will have more time under center which includes different footwork than they are accustomed to. 

As far as Zach goes, he did get better as the year went on. He is excellent in his play action game and how he moves well around the pocket. That being said their are 5 areas he needs to improve upon. 

1. Processing information and decision making- This  is the #1 issue and not easy for rookie QB. Everything else will come into play if he improves in that area. To play at the NFL elite level, you have to master the mental game. Pre snap, post snap and time of throw. 

Pre snap you have to understand both protection and coverage. Really those 2 are integral.

Some thought Process issues pre-snap:

A. Are you going to hand the ball off or throw it on an rpo?

B. Are you going to check a run because it's a bad look on the left side so we need to check it right? Maybe I need to check to a quick pass or take a shot because I read cover 0 with the middle of the field open. 

C. Are you going to change the center's protection call because you see a 2nd level blitz coming that the center may not have accounted for? Jets are center based but the QB holds the cards. If you see a bad look, you need to trump the center and make the right call. 

D. What is the coverage pre-snap, does motion give me a man or zone indicator and where I may be going with the football on that route concept.

Post snap:

A. Recognize pressure and throw hot

B. Are they rolling the coverage, from a 3 look one side to a 3 look the other way.

C. Did they start in cover 2 and then go cover 3 or vise versa. 

D. Man to man: Did it start as a 2 shell and then become a lurk, safety robbing the hole concept that takes away the middle of the field.  Now, what's your progression

E. Did they stay with your pre-snap assessment man or zone

This all has to do with the overall success which we will talk about next:

 2. Sack %- He was the most sacked QB in the league. Technically, he was 3rd but if he played in every game he would be the most sacked QB in the league. In 13 games he was sacked 44 times. Burrow was 51 in 16 games and Tannehill was 47 in 17 games. You can see the NFL sack rate here NFL Sack Rate Stats. This is at times other players fault, but he has to learn to make the necessary decisions to get rid of the ball quickly. 

He was also the most pressured QB in the league. He was hit , pressured and sacked more than any other QB on average. He was at  30% and Mike White was only 19%. Mike White had the same pocket time protection which I touch on later of  2.4, so it really shouldn't be much of a difference.

 He was sacked 12% of the time in the last 3 games and that doubled what any other Jet QB did this year. He needs to manipulate the pocket better, not panic under pressure and  stay in the pocket and make good throws.  

If you look at the pocket time, meaning the time a qb has before the pocket collapses, the Jets are average. So what that means is he has some time to make some throws, but holds the ball a little too long. He has the same pocket time, 2.4 as Herbert, Allen, Rodgers to name a few, but gets sacked at an alarming rate. 

3. Drop depth- I am also very curious as to what changes the Jets make next year. I don't really understand when in gun, the fact that Wilson ends up at 12 yards from the line of scrimmage on his drops.Is this by design. Seems like this gives his offensive lineman trouble as they have to really set vertically to slow down those edge rushers. It makes their job extremely difficult.  That really doesn't play into the SF system which we inherited. I wonder if the sacks would be reduced if he took a shorter drop. 

4. Protection Recognition- He needs to understand protections and learn to make the calls to be an effective QB. The Jets are a center based protection system. But if he's going to take the next step he has to learn to make the necessary calls if he sees something. What that means is this, the center makes the call, but if the QB sees pressure like a safety or OLB coming, he has the final say and needs to change it. There's a reason, the other Jet QB's were sacked half as much and this is one of them .

5. Accuracy- His accuracy needs to improve. He completed 55% of his throws. That just is not very good. There were some drops in there but the fact is he struggles in the intermediate and short passing game. 25 drops is a little high but doesn't change the stats that drastically. The lowest team in the NFL was 13. They really simplify the offense for him but he struggled to complete simple screens, boots and many intermediate throws. He was 31st in on target throws meaning 69% of his throws were on target. You can compare him to the rest of the NFL QB here. QB Accuracy stats

6. 3rd Down Efficiency- To be a playoff team you need to be good on 3rd down. 10/111 teams in the NFL playoffs were 10/11 best teams in the NFL. The stats don't lie. Then look at the records of the bad teams. 3rd down matters and will always matter. If we only graded guys on 1st and 2nd down, they'd be a ton of good QBS. Unfortunately, you have to do the job on 3rd to be an elite offense and that just didn't happen. 

Lastly, his 3rd down efficiency needs to improve. Zach struggled here. The NY Jets were 77/212 on 3rd down.They were 27th in the league at 36%. Zach was 57/166 on 3rd down with a low 34% ranking. Just the stats as they are. That has to get better for him to take the next step.

3rd down efficiency

 Here are his statistics in the last 7 games since returning. His numbers are below average and need to improve. He has made great progress on the early downs but third down is really last in the nfl. 

He was 22/84 over that 7 game period which needs improvement

Week12 vs the Texans
Overall                                                                            3rd down 
14/24 145 yards      otd/ 1int                                         2/13 on 3rd down

Week 13 vs the Eagles
23/38 226 yards 2 td 1 int                                             3/9  on 3rd down

 Week 14 Vs the Saints                 
19/42 202 yards                                                            3/14 on 3rd down

Week 15 vs the Dolphins
13/23  170 yards                                                           3/11 on 3rd down

Week 16 vs the Jaguars
14/22  102 yards   1 td                                                 4/12   on 3rd down      

                                                
 
week 17 vs the Bucs
 19/33 234 yards 1 td                                                   6/11 on 3rd down 

week 18 vs the Bills. 
7/20  87 yards                                                               1/14 on 3rd down 

The biggest concern is the 22/84  on 3rd down which is last in the nfl over the last 7 weeks. That is a very disappointing 26%.  But, that being said, most rookies were in the bottom half on 3rd down and a year in the league will help in this area.

The Jets have added some excellent pieces which will definitely help elevate his game. He will have Conklin and Uzomah at tight end, Breece Hall at RB and Garrett Wilson at WR. Those 4 weapons should open up some opportunities for him. 

Lets look at some things more closely. Again, Zach is a young QB so 1 more year in the system will only help him. He came along way but these were some of the plays he can improve upon. 

Mental piece:
The Dolphins run the same mug blitz look twice vs bunch. The 1st time they ran it, Zach should have made a note. The mug slot pressure. Maybe check the protection call. Still slide and get hit on both occassions. They miss the same twice? Whose it on,  QB or Center

Later in the game 3rd and 7, bunch formation again this time with the RB in. Still don't block the slot.

Same mug look, blitz same coverage. Cover 2 and we are throwing to the back vs a 4 man cover 2 pressure on 3rd down.  He should have realized when they went bunch, what they got. 

3rd down Vs the Dolphins 3rd and 11.  

This was the biggest play before the half as Zach missed a wide open big gain. They run a post pattern with a dig and the Dolphins are in cover 2 with no middle of the field safety. The play is   wide open. Possible big gain instead they have to punt on the next play.  This was the biggest miss of the game. 

They were up 17-10 at the time and this was a bog opportunity to keep the chains moving.

3rd and 7 in the red zone. Good pocket enough to get the ball out. Why scramble?

3rd and 7 miami 9 they run a sit by #1 with a wheel, tight window but he scrambles, could he have hit kroft?  (See clip below) Possibly could have stepped up in the pocket and hit Kroft for the nice gain.

The ball should be out right now. It[s 3 step throw it on time. Should be a completion. 

Here are some clips of concepts shown above. 

3rd down efficiency

This area will improve with more weapons in the passing game. But last year it was an area of concern. 

Let's look at it game by game.  The 1st game is the Texans which was Zach's first game back from injury. He was a disappointing 2/13 on 3rd down. Here are a few situations where the Jets had the opportunity for points or first downs.

Texans 3rd and goal on the 4. They run a nice concept and Zach has a wr open on the crossing route as the Texans dbs collide. He gets pressure as Fast gets beat inside and doesn't see the crosser get open due to the pressure. 

 Result: Sack

On 3rd and 17. The Jets run 4 slants, Zach scrambles forces it to the RB and it gets picked off. Tough break for Zack. None of the routes would have gotten him a first down, so probably better just running it there.

3rd and 10 

Heres a throw I think Zach has to make. The Line gives him a few seconds and he has a dig shallow cross concept. He could throw the dig and definitely has the shallow. Vs cover2 which he gets pre snap, he should be working those routes.

On  a key 3rd and 3, the Jets run Elijah Moore on a slant. Zach puts too much zip on the ball and throws the incomplete. Should have been a 1st but Zach has to put more touch on the ball.

Bad throw and they are forced to punt.

The last one is a a 3rd and 8.

The jets run a #2 option route with a mandatory outside release by #1 up top. Cover 2 makes that a tough throw with the squat corner so he should work the bottom side. They run a dig with a 5 yard stop. The spacing of #2 and 3 make this difficult but it may have been there if Zach stayed in the pocket. Zach scrambles and is able to complete it for 7 yards setting up a 4th and 1 situation.

All in all, Zach had a promising rookie year. He has a great coaching staff and some better weapons moving into 2022. The Jets should be a playoff caliber team if Zach continues to develop at the QB position.